A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
